The Raisi government’s only leverage at this time, in the absence of wanting to discuss non-nuclear related issues, is its offer to roll back actions that can be construed as going beyond the peaceful use of nuclear energy – such as the stockpiling of unacceptably high-grade enriched uranium – while removing all impediments to the monitoring of its activities by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors.
However, no one genuinely believes that, in the absence of wider discussions, there is any likelihood of a scenario where all sanctions will be removed. So the Iranian economy will continue to be hostage to these endless talks that will only address piecemeal issues such as ‘which sanctions, which nuclear activities, and in what order’ for the time being.
At home, while Raisi and the ‘deep state’ remain unchallenged by any kind of cohesive political alternative, the reality is that they are incapable of offering any kind of hopeful vision for the future of Iran that is palatable for the overwhelming majority of the alienated and hurting general population.
In this respect, it is ironic that the timing of Raisi’s first 100 days in office should have coincided with the passing of FW de Klerk, South Africa’s last head of state from the era of white-minority rule.
Just as de Klerk negotiated with Mandela to fully dismantle apartheid and establish a transition to universal suffrage, Raisi, who is tipped by many to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s next supreme leader, could take a leaf from de Klerk’s book by giving serious consideration to finding ways of embracing calls for national reconciliation and exploiting peaceful channels for transitioning away from the current theocratic dictatorship towards an all-inclusive system acceptable to the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people.
It is worth mentioning that a pre-recorded video message from de Klerk, apologising to the people of South Africa for the atrocities committed by the apartheid regime, was released on 11 November following his death.
Raisi can either emulate de Klerk by working towards a peaceful transition through constitutional reform, or he could face the ultimate prospect of making his apology to the Iranian nation in front of a judicial tribunal.
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